JP Morgan Warns Russia Faces 1998 Like Collapse in Economy
This Russia/Putin/Ukraine debacle, just goes to show, that as it relates to the subject explored in these pages, it proves out on all levels. There is a “Law of Cause & Effect” that operates on the tiniest to the most significant levels and is fundamental to the understanding of every aspect of nature and every branch of science!
In this case it regards a country, Russia and it’s leader, Putin. It doesn’t get much more global than that! Moreover, it is a Law that is corroborated by all major religions and schools of philosophy.
When we as individuals see it in action, we often use the current term of art, “What Goes Around Comes Around,” to express our observation of the dynamics at play. Many also use the traditional term, “Karma.”
Essentially, they mean the same thing! Namely, that nothing happens in a vacuum and every seed planted will, at some point appear as life experience in proper measure. This does not bode well those participating in the brutality on display.
As our clarity on the subject of this natural law is ever evolving, there are aspects of it that we still don’t have a firm grip on. The timing of the appearance is one of them. But just like all branches of science, our knowledge advances in increments and there will come a time when that answer is clarified.
The key thing to know, is that it is also working in regard to every aspect, of every individual’s life!
JPMorgan Warns Russia Faces 1998-Like Collapse in Economy
- Export earnings disrupted, imports set to buckle, analysts say
- Central bank sanctions, SWIFT cut-off have intensifed pressure
Russia is on course for an economic collapse that will rival or even eclipse the size of the 1998 slump which followed its debt default, although the financial fallout may be less than then.
Days after President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine, economists are starting to publish forecasts for what is currently the world’s eleventh largest economy, even though they warn the outlook is opaque and subject to revision.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s economists told clients in a report on Friday that they expect a 7% contraction in gross domestic product this year, the same as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Bloomberg Economics forecasts a fall of about 9%. The economy shrank 5.3% in 1998 amid the debt crisis.
The Russian economy is reeling after foreign governments slapped sanctions on trade, finance and travel, froze the reserves of its central bank and cut many of its banks from the SWIFT global messaging system. Russia has sought to insulate its economy and markets with capital controls, a doubling of interest rates and other emergency measures, all of which will hurt growth.
Deep Dive
Russia’s economy to contract after sanctions and isolation
Source: Federal Statistics Service, JPMorgan forecast for 2022
“Sanctions undermine the two pillars promoting stability — the ‘fortress’ foreign-currency reserves of the central bank and Russia’s current account surplus,” JPMorgan’s economists, led by Bruce Kasman, said in their report. “The sanctions will hit their mark on the Russian economy, which now looks headed for a deep recession.”
Still, investors said while the human and geopolitical aftershocks of Russia’s invasion are greater than what was witnessed in 1998, in the short-term the ruble’s decline has proved smaller and the country now has a greater ability to stave off defaulting on its debt, especially if other nations continue to resist imposing sanctions on its energy exports.
“It is the long-term that is more troubling,” said Tim Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. “The longer that sanctions are upheld, and especially if they are expanded to include gas and oil exports, the more likely Russia is to become an untouchable capital market for years to come.”
“The currency weakness we see now will inevitably be inflationary, particularly if the economy remains closed off from the rest of the world,” he said. “It is not hard to envision extreme scenarios similar to the post-1998 period in this case.”
Oil and gas revenue has been providing a hard-currency support for Russia because the sale and transport of energy have avoided sanctions as the U.S. and other governments worry such limits would end up hurting their economies more. Russia was running a monthly current-account surplus of about $20 billion at the start of the year.
Bloomberg Economics reckons the blocking of oil and gas exports would mean the economy may contract around 14% this year.
Kirkus Reviews, the gold-standard for independent & accurate reviews, has this to say about
What Goes Around Comes Around:
A stable, positive, non preachy, objective voice makes the book stand apart from others in the genre. A successful guide that uses anecdotes to reveal powerful truths about life.
~ Kirkus Reviews
“I’ve read a number of books that focus on sharing a similar message, including “The Secret” by Rhonda Byrne, “The Answer” by John Assaraf & Murray Smith, “The Celestine Prophecy” by James Redfield, “Think and Grow Rich,” by Napoleon Hill, and I must say that I find Rob’s to be my favorite.” – Sheryl Woodhouse, founder of Livelihood Matters LLC
JPMorgan Warns Russia Faces 1998-Like Collapse in Economy
JPMorgan Warns Russia Faces 1998-Like Collapse in Economy
Here’s a head scratcher that I’m of two minds about as it relates to the subject in question, though either way it is a great, multiple illustration of “Cause & Effect” in action. On the one hand it is somewhat poetic that Jeff Zucker would have to fire Chris Cuomo for the “brother Andrew” matter, while he himself was hiding his own “peccadillo,” only to have that indiscretion revealed and have to “walk the plank” himself!
However, a rule is a rule is a rule and guess what? Yup! “What Goes Around Comes Around!”
One nuance of the situation for Jeff Zucker, was whether the fact that he was carrying around his own secret may be why he didn’t act more decisively on the Cuomo situation? Not to imply that it means he deserved the firing squad if it was true. But he had signed on to follow the rules and lead by example, which he was abusing at the same time that Chris was understating his role to help Andrew. But still, did he equivocate on Cuomo because in his own mind it seemed hypocritical? In the end, it is a small matter but interesting to contemplate nonetheless.
Colombo Family Crime Boss and 12 Others Are Arrested, Prosecutors Say
An indictment unsealed on Tuesday accuses the organization of orchestrating a two-decade scheme to extort a labor union.
For two decades, the leadership of the Colombo crime family extorted a Queens labor union, federal prosecutors said — an effort that continued unabated even as members of the mob clan cycled through prison, the family’s notorious longtime boss died, and as federal law enforcement closed in.
Over time, what began as a Colombo captain’s shakedown of a union leader, complete with expletive-laced threats of violence, expanded into a cottage industry, prosecutors said, as the Colombo organization assumed control of contracting and union business, with side operations in phony construction certificates, marijuana trafficking and loan-sharking.
On Tuesday, 11 reputed members and associates of the Colombo crime family, including the mob clan’s entire leadership, were charged in a labor racketeering case brought by the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn.
All but two of the men were arrested Tuesday morning across New York and New Jersey, prosecutors said. Another was surrendered to the authorities on Tuesday; another defendant, identified as the family consigliere, remained at large, prosecutors said.
The indictment accuses the Colombo family of orchestrating a two-decade scheme to extort an unnamed labor union that represented construction workers, using threats of violence to secure payments and arrange contracts that would benefit the crime family.
The charges are an ambitious effort by the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to take down one of the city’s five Mafia families. In addition to the union extortion scheme, which is the heart of the racketeering charge, the indictment charges several misdeeds often associated with the mob, including drug trafficking, money laundering, loan-sharking and falsifying federal labor safety paperwork.
Detention hearings for the defendants in Brooklyn federal court continued into the evening Tuesday, as they entered not-guilty pleas to the charges; prosecutors had asked the court to keep 10 of the defendants in custody.
“Everything we allege in this investigation proves history does indeed repeat itself,” Michael J. Driscoll, F.B.I. assistant director-in-charge, said in a statement. “The underbelly of the crime families in New York City is alive and well.”
Around 2001, prosecutors said, Vincent Ricciardo — a reported captain in the family, also known as “Vinny Unions” — began to demand a portion of a senior labor union official’s salary. When Mr. Ricciardo was convicted and imprisoned on federal racketeering charges in the mid-2000s, prosecutors said, his cousin continued to collect those payments.
Starting in late 2019, prosecutors said, the senior leadership of the Colombo family became directly involved in the shakedown, which extended to broader efforts to siphon money from the union: for example, manipulating the selection of union health fund vendors to contract with entities connected to the family, and diverting more than $10,000 each month from the fund to the family.
Andrew Russo, 87, who prosecutors describe as the family boss, is accused of taking part in those efforts, as well as a money-laundering scheme to send the proceeds of the union extortion through intermediaries to Colombo associates. He was among nine defendants charged with racketeering.
Mr. Russo appeared in court virtually from the hospital Tuesday; he is set to be detained upon his release, pending a future bail hearing.
The family’s infamous longtime boss, Carmine J. Persico, died in federal custody in North Carolina in March 2019.
Federal law enforcement learned of the extortion scheme about a year ago, prosecutors wrote in a court filing Tuesday; investigators gathered thousands of hours of wiretapped calls and conversations recorded by a confidential witness, wrote the prosecutors, who also described law-enforcement surveillance of meetings among the accused conspirators.
The authorities said they repeatedly captured Mr. Ricciardo and his associates threatening to kill the union official. “I’ll put him in the ground right in front of his wife and kids,” Mr. Ricciardo was recorded saying in June.
On another occasion cited by prosecutors in the memo seeking his detention, Mr. Ricciardo directed the union official to hire a consultant selected by the Colombo family, saying: “It’s my union and that’s it.” Prosecutors said his activities were overseen by a Colombo soldier and the consigliere who remains at large.
Much of the activity outlined in the indictment took place while the defendants were either in prison or on supervised release for prior federal mob-related convictions. Theodore Persico Jr., described as a family captain and soldier, was released from federal prison in 2020 and, despite a directive not to associate with members of organized crime, “directed much of the labor racketeering scheme,” prosecutors said.
Mr. Persico, 58, is set to inherit the role of boss after Mr. Russo, prosecutors wrote.
Several of the defendants were named in what prosecutors described as a fraudulent safety training scheme, in which they falsified state and federal paperwork that is required for construction workers to show they have completed safety training courses.
One of the defendants, John Ragano — whom prosecutors say is a soldier in the Bonanno crime family — is accused of setting up phony occupational safety training schools in New York, which prosecutors said were “mills” that provided fraudulent safety training certificates to hundreds of people.
In October 2020, prosecutors said, an undercover law enforcement officer visited one of the schools in Ozone Park, Queens, and received, from Mr. Ricciardo’s cousin, a blank test form and an answer sheet; weeks later, the agent returned to pick up his federal safety card and paid $500.
The purported schools were also used for meetings with members of La Cosa Nostra — the group of crime families commonly known as the Mafia — and to store illegal drugs and fireworks, according to the indictment.
Mr. Ragano wasn’t charged on the racketeering count, although prosecutors also sought his detention pending trial. In addition to the racketeering count, several defendants, including Mr. Ricciardo and his cousin, were charged with extortion, conspiracy, fraud and conspiracy to make false statements.
William K. Rashbaum contributed reporting.
Correction:
An earlier version of this article misstated the number of people identified in an indictment as members of the Colombo crime family. It is 11, not more than a dozen.